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While extremely useful (e.g., for COVID-19 forecasting and policy-making, urban mobility analysis and marketing, and obtaining business insights), location data collected from mobile devices often contain data from a biased population subset, with some communities over or underrepresented in the collected datasets. As a result, aggregate statistics calculated from such datasets (as is done by various companies including Safegraph, Google, and Facebook), while ignoring the bias, leads to an inaccurate representation of population statistics. Such statistics will not only be generally inaccurate, but the error will disproportionately impact different population subgroups (e.g., because they ignore the underrepresented communities). This has dire consequences, as these datasets are used for sensitive decision-making such as COVID-19 policymaking. This paper tackles the problem of providing accurate population statistics using such biased datasets. We show that statistical debiasing, although in some cases useful, often fails to improve accuracy. We then propose BiasBuster, a neural network approach that utilizes the correlations between population statistics and location characteristics to provide accurate estimates of population statistics. Extensive experiments on real-world data show that BiasBuster improves accuracy by up to 2 times in general and up to 3 times for underrepresented populations.

Early evaluation of patients who require special care and who have high death-expectancy in COVID-19, and the effective determination of relevant biomarkers on large sample-groups are important to reduce mortality. This study aimed to reveal the routine blood-value predictors of COVID-19 mortality and to determine the lethal-risk levels of these predictors during the disease process. The dataset of the study consists of 38 routine blood-values of 2597 patients who died (n = 233) and those who recovered (n = 2364) from COVID-19 in August-December, 2021. In this study, the histogram-based gradient-boosting (HGB) model was the most successful machine-learning classifier in detecting living and deceased COVID-19 patients (with squared F1 metrics F1^2 = 1). The most efficient binary combinations with procalcitonin were obtained with D-dimer, ESR, D-Bil and ferritin. The HGB model operated with these feature pairs correctly detected almost all of the patients who survived and those who died (precision > 0.98, recall > 0.98, F1^2 > 0.98). Furthermore, in the HGB model operated with a single feature, the most efficient features were procalcitonin (F1^2 = 0.96) and ferritin (F1^2 = 0.91). In addition, according to the two-threshold approach, ferritin values between 376.2 mkg/L and 396.0 mkg/L (F1^2 = 0.91) and pro-calcitonin values between 0.2 mkg/L and 5.2 mkg/L (F1^2 = 0.95) were found to be fatal risk levels for COVID-19. Considering all the results, we suggest that many features combined with these features, especially procalcitonin and ferritin, operated with the HGB model, can be used to achieve very successful results in the classification of those who live, and those who die from COVID-19. Moreover, we strongly recommend that clinicians consider the critical levels we have found for procalcitonin and ferritin properties, to reduce the lethality of the COVID-19 disease.

Healthcare digitalization requires effective applications of human sensors, when various parameters of the human body are instantly monitored in everyday life due to the Internet of Things (IoT). In particular, machine learning (ML) sensors for the prompt diagnosis of COVID-19 are an important option for IoT application in healthcare and ambient assisted living (AAL). Determining a COVID-19 infected status with various diagnostic tests and imaging results is costly and time-consuming. This study provides a fast, reliable and cost-effective alternative tool for the diagnosis of COVID-19 based on the routine blood values (RBVs) measured at admission. The dataset of the study consists of a total of 5296 patients with the same number of negative and positive COVID-19 test results and 51 routine blood values. In this study, 13 popular classifier machine learning models and the LogNNet neural network model were exanimated. The most successful classifier model in terms of time and accuracy in the detection of the disease was the histogram-based gradient boosting (HGB) (accuracy: 100%, time: 6.39 sec). The HGB classifier identified the 11 most important features (LDL, cholesterol, HDL-C, MCHC, triglyceride, amylase, UA, LDH, CK-MB, ALP and MCH) to detect the disease with 100% accuracy. In addition, the importance of single, double and triple combinations of these features in the diagnosis of the disease was discussed. We propose to use these 11 features and their binary combinations as important biomarkers for ML sensors in the diagnosis of the disease, supporting edge computing on Arduino and cloud IoT service.

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework is a versatile method for addressing single and multiagent sequential decision making problems. Many exact and approximate solution methods attempt to exploit structure in the problem and are based on value factorization. Especially multiagent settings (MAS), however, are known to suffer from an exponential increase in value component sizes as interactions become denser, meaning that approximation architectures are overly restricted in the problem sizes and types they can handle. We present an approach to mitigate this limitation for certain types of MASs, exploiting a property that can be thought of as "anonymous influence" in the factored MDP. In particular, we show how anonymity can lead to representational and computational efficiencies, both for general variable elimination in a factor graph but also for the approximate linear programming solution to factored MDPs. The latter allows to scale linear programming to factored MDPs that were previously unsolvable. Our results are shown for a disease control domain over a graph with 50 nodes that are each connected with up to 15 neighbors.

Exploiting the large amount of available data for addressing relevant social problems has been one of the key challenges in data mining. Such efforts have been recently named "data science for social good" and attracted the attention of several researchers and institutions. We give a contribution in this objective in this paper considering a difficult public health problem, the timely monitoring of dengue epidemics in small geographical areas. We develop a generative simple yet effective model to connect the fluctuations of disease cases and disease-related Twitter posts. We considered a hidden Markov process driving both, the fluctuations in dengue reported cases and the tweets issued in each region. We add a stable but random source of tweets to represent the posts when no disease cases are recorded. The model is learned through a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces the posterior distribution of the relevant parameters. Using data from a significant number of large Brazilian towns, we demonstrate empirically that our model is able to predict well the next weeks of the disease counts using the tweets and disease cases jointly.

In this study, we propose an automatic learning method for variables selection based on Lasso in epidemiology context. One of the aim of this approach is to overcome the pretreatment of experts in medicine and epidemiology on collected data. These pretreatment consist in recoding some variables and to choose some interactions based on expertise. The approach proposed uses all available explanatory variables without treatment and generate automatically all interactions between them. This lead to high dimension. We use Lasso, one of the robust methods of variable selection in high dimension. To avoid over fitting a two levels cross-validation is used. Because the target variable is account variable and the lasso estimators are biased, variables selected by lasso are debiased by a GLM and used to predict the distribution of the main vector of malaria which is Anopheles. Results show that only few climatic and environmental variables are the mains factors associated to the malaria risk exposure.

In this dissertation, we propose an online learning technique to predict a value of a continuous variable by (i) integrating a set of data streams from heterogeneous sources with time varying compositions including (a) changing the quality of data streams, (b) addition or deletion of data streams (ii) integrating the results of several analysis algorithms for each data source when the most suitable algorithm for a given data source is not known a priori (iii) dynamically weighting the prediction of each analysis algorithm and data source on the system prediction based on their varying quality.